Projection of Carbon Emissions from the Diesel, Biodiesel, and Battery Electric Vehicle in Indonesia: A Policy Scenario Analysis for Decarbonization of Transportation Sector

Abstract The Indonesian government is intensifying the mandatory biodiesel program to achieve carbon emission reduction target. Although emissions from use of are lower than diesel, its rapid development has raised concerns about other environmental issues, such as deforestation, hydrological disturbances, and biodiversity. At same time, global trend electric cars offers a new alternative decarbonization transportation sector. Therefore, this study aims compare vehicle policy scenarios. baseline scenario defined full usage diesel. projection conducted until 2060 using model built with Vensim software. As result, 30% blending rate (B30) only reduced by 6.14 11.26 million tons in 2030 2060, respectively. Higher can be achieved increasing 50% 100%. On hand, vehicles very dependent on energy mix electricity generation. Under 2021–2030 National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) target, would produce higher scenario. However, there potential up three times larger B100 (EV) if EV transition accompanied an ambitious transition.